I think the jobs we have today—the jobs we tell people like Pew believe will be around in fifty years—are going to vanish more quickly than we expect. But we aren’t paying attention, because these jobs won’t die a big, generalist death. Instead, they’ll die by a thousand specialized cuts.
True! The qualitative difference over time is exactly what people are terrible at visualizing. That includes the error at misjudging change that affects others versus change that affects our own complex, personal world. In short we can’t be replaced because we know the tricks and all the secrets, where the bodies are buried, that we use to manipulate our peers. The others are just robots anyway so, of course, they will be replaced. Combined with our natural linear thinking gives us the security of not having to worry about what those crazy people are saying (see above about those other people). As I’ve said in other writings we’ve become reactionary to the acceleration of paradigm disruption by identifying things like ‘everyone losing their job to robots’ as a cliche. “Oh, everyone talks about that. . .” And the mental ellipsis is the act of turning off rational analysis and projection. Cliches are just talk. The brutal truth is that AI is real and our exponential (another cliche with no real meaning for most people) technological growth in implementation of AI has already caused the passing of the evolutionary baton to our electronic offspring. We are heading for history’s biggest “Oh, SHIT!!” moment. My estimate is that we are at about 5% realization now but self-driving cars and fully integrated digital assistants will take us over 15% in the next two years. And then the realization itself will go exponential. . . (Ellipsis fully intended cause that’s a cliche!.)