Time to Move On
It’s time to move on. We’ve been pulled down into a mindless, pointless, and soon to be irrelevant world of the Trump fiasco. The Comey testimony has. as I’ve said in another response, pretty much sealed Trump’s fate for what that is worth (not much). Not by the sudden revelation of a smoking gun but by death of a thousand cuts that will not heal. That wound will slowly bleed until Trump is gone. It is the way of the US political system once the beast has been awakened. The beast does not go for the clean kill but the slow and lingering death as it feeds on the victim. The incompetence and ignorance have been made clear in a senate hearing but the essence is that Trump lies inappropriately. The fact that he is apparently seriously in hock to Russian interests is a real problem but that is very difficult to prove and is being replaced by the easier to understand involvement of Russian groups in efforts to influence the 2016 election. This now guarantees that the FBI investigation of the Russian involvement will alternate with obstruction of justice discussions to keep the blood flowing. It will be long and tiring. In the end both beast and victim will die.
The surprises are coming quickly now. But the future is starting to show itself as well. This is the nature of phase shifts of this magnitude. I’ve made several efforts to piece these together but there are many variables. It is becoming clearer and we will steadily see things appear as options but many will fade away just as Trump and the neo-fascists are suddenly silly and appear much less powerful than just a few days ago. This is tied to the loss of Le Pen in France and now the mortal blow to Theresa May and the Tories in GB. Trump and the fascists are still dangerous and can cause much suffering and many deaths but they cannot last. The left will now be ascendent? No.
We are now, I think, in a cycle of knocking back and forth between the old extremes and the old middle, e.g. Macron as an example. Jeremy Corbyn is not going to save England or us although he is a damned site closer to the future than the reactionary choices of the least aware portions of the population. They were the ones that panicked first, with some social media help, and jumped for traditionalist strong ruler types in fear of technological change. The irony that their old style leaders used sophisticated social media technology shows how confused things have become. My guess is that these bounces will continue while the future metamorphosizes around us.
The key pieces of the future are the collapse of the old nation states but that is going to take time and will follow different paths in different places. My preference is to break the old nations down into metropoles with administrative units in the world urban regions. This seems the most logical to me for the interim. Obviously this would work for those regions especially in the Americas and Europe and has already on the way in Southeast Asia and parts of Africa. A problem for this are the remnant empires: China, Russia, and the US. These seem to be reverting to full empires as the historical vestiges of that structure are still extant. But we will have to see.
The contest that will replace the ‘right’ hyper capitalism versus ‘left’ socialist capitalism of the twentieth century will be, I think, more like ‘government’ versus ‘no government’ or, non-political administration versus government. There seems to be a theme of anarchism that has evolved a bit but may end up being simply AI based administration in regional governments. For the US the states may survive in regional alignments but we will need to see. The remnant from the old conservatism may well be not smaller government as the government must replace the failed capitalist economies but government closer to the people in a region and able to respond to the specific needs of that region. But all of these regions need open trade to support the transition to a sustainable and more balanced economies. Cities have been developing their own trade agreements do the foundation is already there.
It will be interesting to see how this plays and how long the Trump regime manages to survive. While damage will be done it may be less than we feared as regional and urban centered changes are made to adapt to the emerging order.