Layers of Conflict

While I understand your concern with the neocon escalation of the Russian threat for their purposes of military aggression, it was the Russian IT social media arm that got Trump elected. Trump is owned by Russian financial interests that are closely allied to Putin. Putin is not a simple person either and I have a great deal of respect for him but he was raised in the KGB. He is working to accelerate the collapse of the US military empire in the hope of strengthening Russia and that is the KGB mantra: weaken all and then manipulate their weakness. Russia is relatively weak and Putin is not original enough to fix that so he follows the patterns that he knows. He needs to either neutralize the US or make it subservient so that he can focus on China. Trump was a surprising gift to him but dangerous to use and, ironically, a miniature Russian doll of a useful fool containing another useful fool and more inside that. But who controls each version of the Trump fool?

This is the dangerous world that is a product of fundamental technological change. All of the old systems are failing because the paradigmatic rules have changed. But they are failing at different rates and the human animal struggles with change insisting, usually, that it doesn’t exist and then panicking at different rates as it progresses.

On the national and international political level this creates continuous nonlinear complexity. In plain language we have different groups working without a base reality. They are all in their bubbles with only distorted views of each other and no common points of reference. That is how I see this. You can say that it has always been that way but that is not true. Remember ‘realpolitik’, e.g. Henry Kissinger, that was cynical but operated on a common understanding of power. That is gone. We can’t even define benefit from a nation state level now. No one knows the rules. Almost everything has a surprising result that is bad.

So racists and bigots were the base of the Republican party and Trump is a con man and shill who recognized a group hungry for rough leadership. But what do you do with them besides generate disgust and rejection. They are a crude weapon of little value in this complex world.

The oligarchy in the US wants to exploit all available wealth in order to comfortably ride out climate change. Greed is their god. They manipulate Trump for that with approval to take what he can get. Congressional leadership is owned also by these people so no actions will be taken to block blatant corruption.

Neocons were a little late to the game as Trump is often irrational and his words are mostly meaningless until they realized that he can be controlled by visions of being a military dictator. Conflict here because Trump must protect Russia but he must protect himself first and he is struggling to emulate Putin. But the neocons want war because that is where they see power and wealth overlapping with the oligarchy. They build fear of Russia so they can attack Iran and North Korea whichever they can goad first. Trump won’t attack Russia (he can’t) so this makes him really anxious to attack someone and he was fed enough material so that he promised enough outrage to cover all opportunities. Since the Iran treaty was a major Obama win he really wants to blow hell out of Iran. This is really dangerous. Trump is going to see Kim Jung Un and that is dangerous for everyone trying to contol Trump. Kim will probably have Trump dancing and swearing eternal loyalty but then what? Also very dangerous.

China is the world leader already because of the collapse of the US and Great Britain. China is not ready as this was so fast hence Xi Jinping having to scramble to move China into the leadership role. Xi has many problems but a much clearer and longer history and understanding of both direct and indirect power. And China plays the long game. No one else does. Everyone else is also scrambling to reorient to China from the US and NATO. This seismic shift of the power structure is tearing things apart and opening opportunities to settle old scores and for authoritarian lurches by people who think they can get away with it. These people need to be stopped. China needs to be watched and worked with very closely. They will rule but what will they rule?

I think Mueller is one of the few traditional US advocates. While his mandate is a Russian conspiracy it appears that he is working his way through this to understand who is controlling Trump. In that sense there is no real Russian conspiracy but a shocking success of background media manipulation. Remember everything is a surprise now. So the Trump disaster is really only a disaster for the US. Mueller is trying to save the US and not get sucked into this massive vortex of forces manipulating a powerless and uncontrollable king on a multi dimensional chessboard. I think that he sees that to save the US, Trump and his hangerson need to be removed. But how to do that when only the people, mostly unrepresented, want that. The ruling groups are not really interested now that they’ve figured out how to manipulate Trump as a useful fool just as Putin and the Russian oligarchs did.

The Future: Always very hard to predict. This could go really bad or really good but it will almost certainly go some other way entirely. But I will bet that we are at the end of the age of nation-states and probably of political systems as we know them. AI based administration will become separate and efficient while people and society will become ever more diverse. The critical key will be our ability to accept as fundamental reality the rights of all beings. We need to be working on that. The study of virtual reality and Chinese history will be well rewarded.

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Educator, CIO, retired entrepreneur, grandfather with occasional fits of humor in the midst of disaster. . .

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