It’s hard to win when you don’t know the game
by Mike Meyer
I’m really beginning to wonder how bad this week’s Trump disaster is going to be. In an unmatched record of disasters since taking control in Washington, it seems that this may be the one that seriously breaks things and starts another fucking war.
Thoughtless stupidity is the norm but we have become jaded in watching the daily outrages and wild accusations that end up blowing back on Trump and his diminished crew of sycophants. My first thought on the Iran treaty destruction was that Trump would get scared and back down but, I guess, he played fast and loose one too many times and wanted to prove he could do something really, really stupid.
My worry is, first, that that the EU will grow some hair on their asses and call Trump’s bluff. The best way to deal with ignorant bullies is to hit them where it hurts causing them to back up. But to make that work they will have to do things that hurt everyone. But these are not kids in a school yard dealing with an ignorant, blowhard bully. There are repercussions that Trump doesn’t seem to understand. It’s all a game to him and he gets to strut and threaten and then he wins and he can think of something else to do. Sorry but he really stepped in this time.
Given the economic damage already accepted by the EU in setting up the JCPOA, Italy will scream and Germany will be hard pressed to accept more damage to comply with Trump’s game. If they call his bluff they will lose American business and Iranian business is significant but not nearly as big as American business. This is just not acceptable. And Trump won’t take well to being ignored. He has already sent his goons out to threaten the Europeans.
It would be best if they stand up to him but that brings down a whole new level of business and economic loss. As we know, Trump don’t give a shit. Everyone else must pay the price of slapping down a nasty brat. But the business losses that may result are large. How much do you ask your people to accept.
If the EU tuck their tails and eat this it is worse. That then shows the rest of the planet that the “west” is no longer in charge but are cowards that have become a threat to everyone by allowed an idiot to take charge of the largest and richest country. Everyone knows that unless bullies are slapped hard they will keep coming back for more. But none of this is happening in isolation.
And that leads to my second worry: This will totally destabilize an already shaky Mideast. There is no one but Israel and the Saudis supporting Trump. Not a nice group of states.
At this point Iran has the upper hand as they are clearly being attacked by an out of control US regime. The fact that they have a nasty religionist authoritarian government makes this even worse. But we know that Russia and China will support Iran. Russia is dangerous within limits but China is now the real power. The idiot Trump keeps acting up and causing trouble for the grownups who may decide he needs a lesson. Fortunately the Chinese are not irrational nor, for that matter, is Putin. But the balance of power is changing quickly and there are a lot of non military actions that can be increased. That will happen in the IT game zone.
My expectation is that the US will be slapped hard but not stupidly as Trump and his goons expect. The hits will be destructive but no immediately obvious. We may experience some serious infrastructure problems. Regional power may go off for extended periods. Communications may fail.
Look what happened in the November 2016 and was just the Russian playing around and giving Trump what he asked for to help level the playing field for Putin. People are still discovering how much was done and what it lead to.
The Chinese are masters of the new virtual world. That means they write the rules. You don’t go insult the folks who can control the rules of a game that you don’t even understand.
However this goes Trump has started things that everyone will need to pay for. But I’m betting American will be surprised at the size of the bill we will pay.