It is very interesting to see standard analysis done on the potential civil war. While this is fairly sophisticated it seems to be based on the old system or, more accurately, the old paradigm. Failing to consider that leaves you with the old, again that word, media model that is in final collapse. With this model you have Red and Blue caught almost completely in the past.
That perspective covers only what I would term as the hard core of both sides almost totally tied to the same ideology. These people may well decide to start shooting each other but neither side is likely to keep that up without a clear majority and they definitely would not have that.
I would say the plurality but without any solid data on this as the MSM is missing in action here as they are maintaining that your Red or Blue groups actually mean something. My point is that they think they are defending a nation. The nation is gone. But the real point is that the nation state is gone not just for America but for the post industrial world. We operate primarily from urban metropoles. Those are tied to diversity and a very new way of looking at the world.
So I would say the new majority that is emerging is urban based and growing fast. Might as well call it purple. These are also rapidly leaving their nation behind. And who gives a shit about Trumpestan? It’s not relevant. Those people just haven‘t figured things out yet. They are their own worst enemies so let them do themselves in.
I can flip this around and say Trumpestan residents are so caught in the loss of their world that they are dangerous. But they are basically a small minority and are self isolating. We can let them be.
Trump could do anything because he is controlled by voices and by financial interests in Russia and other places. He is irrelevant but will push things to the edge and over the edge unless he is removed. That removal is the problem.
It is much easier to secede from the US and leave him in charge of the structure as it continues to crumble. This is an easy win for the people caught in the aging paradigm. The planet is moving on and bigger issues are becoming critical, nation state collapse, American imperial collapse, and the rise of China, with climate change accelerating the nation state collapse by global regions. Ever growing millions of refugees are very real issue. No time for the folks who insist on selling financial derivatives to each other and pretending to be rich.
Now Trump ordering a military attack on the west coast is possible but I think a pacific coast alliance could come together very quickly with coastal cities plus Hawaii. As we know this is actually where things are going anyway. All cities have close ties internationally and are closer to Japan, China, Korea, etc than to the any part of Trumpestan.
So I’m sure if it were to play out the way the MSM is pretending it is as the old right versus left in the 20th century model it would be as you can predict. But if we call it the urban coastals, including Chicago versus the small town south and west there is no place to fight. Who wants to go to flyover country to fight with distant relatives who are living in the past? Planetary alliances are far more important.
For games theory to be valid you need to understand the actual game being played. It doesn’t help to study the last century’s games.