In my effort to be as forward-focused as possible while remaining aware of the fascist threat, however bumbling it may be, I wasn’t suggesting that the US would survive in some restored form. The people and the land will survive, I’m not up to predicting the political structure.
The best case will be, I think, a military implementation of the 25th amendment to clean out the Trump mess in the confusion from the Trump party’s efforts to deny the election. The US is too far along the trajectory of ‘failed state’ to overcome near-total political dysfunction.
If you can avoid emotion, hard because the fascist forms all play completely on emotion, and look coldly at what has happened to date, tell me who will organize a restoration by force? It’s taken all of Biden’s energy to shift into something that is only mildly reactionary. Using his words the move is from, ‘there will be no changes’ to ‘maybe we need some adjustments but nothing radical’. That will hold if Klobuchar is tapped as VP.
In all likelihood, when the going gets very ugly and Trump locks himself in with his Praetorian Guard (ICE), Joe will fold. He will make placating noises and concede. There will be a lot of hand-wringing and cries of consternation but no one will do shit. Everyone will keep their job and try to ignore those charged with show crimes who disappear.
That is the worst result. Within a year or so of that, there will be open battles between factions in Trumpistan, and travel will be increasingly risky in those areas. The Trump regime is too incompetent to do anything but collapse into feudalism. The mass exodus will be in full motion but only the well-off will be able to escape or move to protected enclaves.
The future I’m looking at will be moving to the essential planetary alliance based on pandemic controls to contain continuing waves of disease, food losses, and natural disasters. We need to work to influence that as it is a competition among China, EU, and India with Africa as the sleeper. Whatever is left of the US will look like Russia now, pretentious but too weak to do more than make threats on its borders.
I’m willing to bet the dominant player will be China. So we should all be supporting Hong Kong to block Xi’s authoritarian reaction to Trump. China is building a new model social structure that works but is very different than the 18th century Enlightenment ideals of Western Europe and America.
Ironically, the highest evolution of the Enlightenment tradition has been European socialist democracy but the decades of US denial and subversion left the EU weak in the confrontation with China’s stronger control. It appears that with Great Britain gone the last US-style proxy can be ignored and the EU can, hopefully, grow into the void left by the US collapse.
This is the future that we need to influence by ignoring Trump’s low-level fascist noise and work to be important to both China and the EU. I think that will be much easier without the remnants of the failed US.
Of course, I’m writing this from Hawai’i and our perspective is as a Pacific Kingdom closely tied to China, Japan, South Korea, and the rest of Asia. Like all small states or cities, we need to pay a lot of attention to our region and we are not going to get pulled into someone else’s conflicts. Been there, done that, got to sell nice t-shirts to tourists but it has, long since worn out.