I would certainly not dismiss this as wrong. The complexity is large and the dysfunctionality of the population in an increasingly failed state makes this unpredictable.

If Trump were to squeeze out another electoral college win it will all be over very quickly. Hopefully there will be little blood shed but the country will break up, not by succession, but by devolution. Trump et al and the federal government will be ignored in the healthy parts of the country.

With a clear majority who hate Trump and his stooge party and the outrage and anger now coming to a head, this is not 2016. The shock is expected and known to be insanely destructive. It will not be tolerated.

Economic collapse will affect Trumpistan hardest driving terrorist militias out to steal, pillage, and burn. That will force new borders city by city and neighborhood by neighborhood. 2021 will then make 2020 look like happy times historically.

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