I just attended a discussion on Hong Kong as a problem for the CCP by Dr. Denny Roy, Senior Fellow, East-West Center. Most of what he talked about was general history for students but in the end, Ovid-19 is now causing higher tensions in Hong Kong while preventing ‘people power’ demonstrations.
Xi and all are becoming desperate to get back into production for their own survival and so are insisting the worst is over. We know the official numbers are a fraction of what is really happening but public health is continuing to be ignored for official reasons. Hong Kong is really angry because they are demanding that the border with China be closed and the government won't do it.
My point is that, not only planetary supply chains are now at risk, but the underlying tensions and disruptions are likely to become much worse. This could blow up but I don’t know when. If Ovid-19 does not slow down in a month or so we are going to see geometric increases in the disruptions with long term and completely unknown effects.
The US is screwed because Trump and handlers have worked to destroy all safeguards and the CDC. People are not stupid enough to believe lies when the disease is around them and becoming a pandemic. It is not the Black Death but the effects on a tightly integrated world economy look to be amplified much more than anyone is saying. Panic changes everything.
For the US, while it has been ‘the economy, stupid’ for reelection, Trump is thoroughly hated by the majority. Without a direct election theft, he cannot overcome even a mildly declining economy. A planetary disruption with an incompetent and disastrous response by a national government can become a death sentence. Frightened people become angry and, even, violent very easily in those situations. We are in completely unknown territory.