I certainly can’t argue with your scenario. The odds are something very like what you say based on the fact that Mueller is playing by the old rules. The system is heavily rigged to maintain whatever passes for the establishment even if that establishment is caught in the previous century, fully corrupt, and criminal.
At this point, pretending that this stuff still matters, the House will shift to the Democrats, the senate will move slightly toward the Democrats, Mueller’s report, already thoroughly damning, will be buried and Mueller will retire. No one will be able to do anything about Trump or the Republican destruction of the economy, human rights, and simple decency.
The failure of the election will convince another generation that there is nothing to be gained except time wasted. A Democratic House will make token moves against the most outrageous funneling of dollars to the oligarchs but will surrender in the cause of compromise. They are owned by the same people and that won’t change. It’s the usual smoke screen with irrelevant scandals to keep people distracted and disgusted.
At that point the 2020 election is irrelevant. Nothing will happen and the pretense will be so thin that people, who can afford it, will continue to emigrate. But that is the big unknown. This system then falls prey to the planetary forces that will destroy it. Or it will collapse and break apart. That will allow the major urban centers to survive and, for some, to thrive in the new planetary alliance.
If that doesn’t happen the steady increase in climate caused disasters will drive massive emigration that can only be responded to with death and oppression.
Not a good end.