Great article. I’m impressed with your range of predictions and mostly agree. My concerns are strongest on Japan and China as Asia is one of my main foci. Japan is very troubled as you describe and I don’t have any answers but it could have s greater negative effect than people realize based on its influence on design and youth culture.
I think China is our biggest medium term hope as it will dominate the planet anyway with wealth and given the accelerating collapse of the American empire. The likelihood of EU disintegration will put even more pressure on China to accept global leadership too soon. Africa is a major factor in this also, obviously.
Your work on cities is exciting. I’ve come to see a rapid political transition to metropoles, or urban regions, as the old nation state model migrates to AI based administrative functions. I have no idea what will happen but the problems of representative government sees, it appears, symptomatic of three technical capability to: 1) make politics into direct democracy, and 2) replace geographic politics with virtual communities.
This seems to avoid contradicting your predictions and may enhance them. Scaling human society to planetary survivability is, I think, going to require breaking administration of basic human rights away from politics. This allows politics to handle allocation of resources without being able too infringe on basic rights and quality of life. I think this may be possible. AI is the key as I’m afraid we are at an evolutionary limit in our ability to handle administration without emotional confusion.
But that is another story.