Excellent review of the secessionist movements. I expect these to grow until the proposed fractures become real. While I have no idea what will happen and respect your depth of knowledge of the historical and cultural regions, my bet is on the new, post capitalist, virtual order that will be urban based.
We are moving to 80% urban in the nxt few years and the political breaks are urban/ rural primarily. This will include not the reformation of the nation state but its death. Much of our planetary problems are increasingly from the size of the 18th century nation state. These seem unable to operate without authoritarian bureaucracies that are designed to ignore a voiceless population. Our populating are no longer voiceless. Government needs to be local with planetary alliances.
However it works out i think history will be seriously disrupted. It is a very new world and the nation states are in serious decline. The wild card is China. It is the exception that seems to prove the rule. But it has as much history as smaller regional kingdoms as a giant empire. It also has a longer history rule and innovation.