An excellent update. The original trends were well identified and the updates reinforce that. The bifurcation you identified between globalization and tribalism was, I think, a preliminary conflict that will evolve into a split between urbanization and traditionalism. The biggest change there will be the decline of the 19th century nation state and direct democracy in regional metropoles.
That will be partially driven by the massive climate driven migrations. And that will probably drive the movement to orbital cities. Whether our science and technology can successfully spread our planetary wealth will dictate whether that is broadly available or for the small elite. If the latter we could see the final split between tribal, selfdestructive authoritarianism on this planet and a new space race.
The next few years could make this type of difference.